A Shrinking Society: Post-Demographic Transition in Japan by Toshihiko Hara

By Toshihiko Hara

This is the publication to target a brand new phenomenon rising within the twenty-first century: the speedily getting older and reducing inhabitants of a well-developed state, particularly, Japan. The which means of this phenomenon has been effectively clarified because the attainable historic final result of the demographic transition from excessive delivery and demise charges to low ones. Japan has entered the post-demographic transitional part and should be the fastest-shrinking society on the earth, prime different Asian nations which are experiencing an identical drastic alterations. the writer used the historic statistics, compiled through the Statistic Bureau, Ministry of inner Affairs and Communications in 2006 and inhabitants projections for published in 2012 via the nationwide Institute of inhabitants and Social defense study, to teach the previous and destiny improvement of the dependency ratio from 1891 to 2060. Then, using the inhabitants existence desk and web replica cost, the consequences of accelerating existence expectancy and declining fertility at the dependency ratio have been saw individually. eventually, the ancient relationships between women’s survival charges at reproductive age, the theoretical fertility fee to keep up the alternative point and the recorded overall fertility price (TFR) have been analyzed. historic statement confirmed TFR adapting to the theoretical point of fertility with a definite time lag and reminiscent of women’s survival charges at reproductive age. Women’s expanding lifespan and survival premiums can have stimulated selection making to lessen the chance of childbearing. no matter if the theoretical fertility expense meets the substitute point, women’s perspectives of minimizing the chance may perhaps stay unchanged simply because for girls the cost–benefit imbalance in childbearing remains to be too excessive in Japan. according to the findings, the writer discusses the sustainability of eastern society with regards to nationwide funds, social protection reform, kin regulations, immigration regulations and group polices.

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Extra info for A Shrinking Society: Post-Demographic Transition in Japan

Sample text

In sum, one can approximately estimate childlessness of the women (Hara 2008). 5 36 4 Historical Process and Background of Fertility Decline in Japan /DWH0RUWDOLW\ 5DWHV ,QFUHDVLQJ /LIH ([SHFWDQF\ :RPHQ¶V6XUYLYDO5DWH GXULQJ&KLOGEHDULQJ

Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. 2013. 2010 Population census. tid=000001039448. Accessed 31 July 2014. Chapter 5 Sustainability of Japan as a Shrinking Society Abstract The post demographic transition had generated various social conflicts. The opposing groups are children and elder, males and females, working and retired population. The basic questions are how to readjust the existing distribution schemes to this changing demographic condition and how to recover the intergenerational reproduction.

3 Female life expectancy and child/elder care cost. 3 The Effects of Rising Longevity on Child/Elder Care Costs 29   $JHVSDFLILF'HDWK5DWHV Å              Fig. 4 Female age-specific death rates (‰) (3 age groups). (Statistics Bureau 2006; NIPSSR 2012) Then, the female age-specific mortalities began to decrease from 1926/1930 in different ways. The child mortality under aged 14 went down faster than the working age mortality at aged 15–64. It reached the bottom and became almost 0 by 1975.

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